Boats are left on the dried-up part of Angat Reservoir as water levels drop to 159.95 masl on Tuesday morning, June 30, 2026. Below-normal rainfall has led to the slow replenishment of the dam, exposing submerged part of the reservoir and impacting the livelihoods of locals—particularly the Dumagats, who rely mostly on fishing. Gigie Cruz, ABS-CBN News
MANILA — Metro Manila could face a water crisis next year if Angat Dam fails to recover from record-low levels amid the prevailing El Niño, PAGASA hydrologists warned.
The water level at Angat, which supplies around 90% of the capital region's water, dipped below critical level earlier this month.
“Kung hindi talaga makaabot ang Angat Dam ng at least 210 meters by the end of the year, posible po tayong magkaroon ng water crisis by next year,” PAGASA senior hydrologist Richard Orendain said in a climate forum on Wednesday.
(If the water level in Angat Dam does not reach 210 meters by the end of the year, we may face a water crisis next year.)
Praying for rain: Dumagats lament changing climate as Angat Dam hits historic low
As of 8 a.m. Thursday, the dam’s water level stood at 151.45 meters, marking a new all-time low. This level is almost 60 meters below the reservoir’s normal high level of 210 meters.
The reservoir dipped below its minimum operating level of 180 meters on May 11 and plunged past its critical low level of 160 meters on July 4.
In the past years, the reservoir’s recovery began mid-July, but that has yet to happen this year.
“Dapat sana nasa recovery period na ang Angat Dam sa ngayon dahil mid-July na, halos nasa third week na tayo ng July. Normally, yun ang [simula ng] recovery period nya but then mahina nga yung mga pag-ulan in the watershed,” Orendain said.
(Recovery in Angat’s water level should already be underway since it’s already the third week of July. However, rainfall over the watershed has been scant.)
The prevailing El Niño, projected to persist through the first half of 2027, may intensify to "very strong" between the last quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of the following year.
With a stronger El Niño, PAGASA officials warned that water shortages may become more likely.
“Kung titingnan natin ‘yung ganung water level [sa Angat Dam], pagkatapos kung titingnan natin ‘yung magiging parating na [malakas] na El Niño, medyo magkakaroon tayo ng shortage sa tubig,” PAGASA deputy administrator Roy Badilla said in a press conference for tropical cyclone Kiyapo on Thursday.
(Given Angat’s current water level and the expected very strong El Niño, we may experience water shortages.)
Dry spell pushes Angat Dam below critical level, threatens indigenous fishing
During a forum in San Jose del Monte City in Bulacan on July 21, Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System Deputy Administrator Jose Alfredo Escoto said Metro Manila’s water allocation from Angat may have to be reduced by nearly one-third if the reservoir falls below 150 meters.
“By that level, we will have to use the low-level bypass outlet that can only accommodate 32 cubic meters per second (cms) from the current 46 cms,” he said.
The southwest monsoon, interacting with Tropical Depression Kiyapo, may bring much-needed rains over the watershed this weekend.
“Kung sakaling magkaroon ng 100 millimeters of rainfall, ma-e-estimate nation na posibleng tumaas yung level ng Angat by around five to seven meters,” hydrologist Jofren Habaluyas said at a press conference for Kiyapo on Thursday.
(If the watershed receives 100 millimeters of rainfall, Angat Dam’s water level could rise by about five to seven meters.)
Badilla expressed hope that the forecast rainfall would materialize.
"Kasi kung hindi po tayo bigyan ng ulan, medyo magkakaroon talaga tayo ng problema," he said.
(Without sufficient rains, we will really face problems.)
CONCESSIONAIRES ASSURE PUBLIC THERE IS ENOUGH WATER
Water concessionaires serving Metro Manila and nearby provinces have previously assured customers that there will be enough water supply even with the El Niño.
Manila Water has found alternative water sources in Upper Wawa Dam in Rizal, Laguna Lake, and Tayabasan Weir, which altogether reduce the demand from Angat Dam by about 20 to 40 percent.
Upper Wawa Dam alone can supply 710 million liters per day of raw water.
Meanwhile, Maynilad derives approximately 450 million liters per day from its Laguna Lake water treatment plants.
Should the Habagat rains prove not enough, Orendain is hopeful that Angat will be able to recover during the northeast monsoon season, as was seen in the past years.
“Ang Angat Dam naman mas nakaka-recover sya during northeast monsoon dahil ang watershed ng Angat Dam is andito sa east… Kapag northeast monsoon at may bagyo tayo na dadaan mismo doon sa lugar, doon sya makaka-recover nang husto,” Orendain said.
(Angat Dam usually recovers during the northeast monsoon season. If a tropical cyclone passes directly over the watershed during the season, recovery can be significant.)
He however acknowledged the steep path ahead in overcoming the rainfall deficit.
“For now, kailangan nation ng at least 1,440 millimeters of rainfall para umabot sya sa normal high water level or spilling level, yung Angat Dam. Siguro mga apat hanggang limang bagyo na dadaan mismo sa watershed. Meron bang mga bagyo na dadaan sa watershed ng Angat Dam? Well, hindi pa natin alam.”
(For now, at least 1,440 millimeters of rain is needed for the dam to return to its normal high water or spilling level. That may require four to five tropical cyclones directly passing over the watershed. But we still don’t know whether that will happen.)
PAGASA’s three-month reservoir projections also remain concerning.
By the end of October, the Angat Dam’s water level is forecast to reach 172.74 meters, still below its minimum operating level.
More than 80% rainfall reduction is forecast over the watershed in November. Although above-normal rainfall is expected in December, precipitation is projected to decline by more than 85 percent by January.
PUBLIC URGED TO CONSERVE WATER
Badilla said PAGASA is coordinating with other government agencies, including the National Water Resources Board (NWRB), on possible cloud seeding operations over the Angat watershed.
“We are in a discussion with [National Water Resources Board] but ang advice po ng body is hindi ngayon kasi meron pa tayong bagyo. So we are working on that kasi kung makikita natin talaga yung current water level ng Angat, medyo nakakabahala sya.”
(We are in a discussion with NWRB, but the advice is not to conduct cloud seeding yet due to the presence of a tropical cyclone. We are working on it because the continuous decline of Angat’s water level is alarming.)
He also urged the public to conserve water to help the government in addressing the water issue.
“Sana tumulong po yung mga tao; magtipid na tayo sa paggamit ng tubig. Katulad ng mga ginagawa natin dati kung may El Nino: ‘yung carwash kung pwede sanang bawas-bawasan or punas-punas na lang muna. Kung ano pa man yung pwede nating maiambag sa ating gobyerno para makatipid tayo sa tubig, yun po sana ay ating gawin.”
(We hope everyone will do their part to help conserve water. As we did in the previous El Niño events, let’s minimize water-intensive activities such as car washing. Whatever we can do to save water, let’s do it.)