Filipinos are projected to live longer over the next decade, with women continuing to outlive men by nearly seven years as the country moves further into its demographic transition, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).
“The life expectancy at birth is projected to increase from 66.7 years for males and 73.26 years for females in 2020 to 70.42 and 77.06 years for males and females respectively in 2035. So beyond longer lives, this trend reflects a continuing demographic transition," said Teodoro M. Orteza, chief statistical specialist of the PSA's Demographic and Health Statistics Division.
The figures indicate improving mortality conditions and overall population health, but also point to a Philippines that must increasingly prepare for an aging population, said.
“The projected increase in life expectancy indicates improving mortality condition and overall population health from 2020 to 2035. This is the projection horizon," Orteza added.
Orteza said longer life expectancy means more Filipinos are expected to survive into older ages, creating implications for healthcare, social protection, families, employment and other services.
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“Ito masasabi natin na mas maraming Pilipino ang kayang mag-survive to older ages. Ito ay mayroon ng implikasyon sa ating healthcare, social protection, families, employment, and other services that must adapt an aging population," he explained.
WOMEN CONTINUE TO OUTLIVE MEN
The PSA projects that the life expectancy gap between men and women will remain relatively stable through 2035.
In 2020, women were projected to live 7.09 years longer than men. By 2026, the gap is expected to narrow slightly to 6.55 years, before reaching 6.64 years by 2035.
“The persistent gap reflects the six specific mortality patterns. So, ibig sabihin po nito lagi talagang mas maiksi iyong haba ng buhay ng mga kalalakihan," Orteza explained
“So, mayroon dito siyempre ng kontribusyon iyong mga vices for the males. And based on the mortality and on the child mortality rates, mas pinapakita by sex na mas maraming nagko-continue, mas maraming kababaihan ang nabubuhay in terms of the child mortality as compared to male," he added.
Orteza also pointed to mortality data showing a higher number of male-related causes of death.
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“Health is very much related to the mortality. Kung makikita natin doon sa mga nilalabas na causes of death from the civil registration data, mas marami doon iyong mga causes of death na male-related as compared to female-related deaths," he said.
GREATER DEMANDS ON HEALTH AND SOCIAL PROTECTION
The increase in longevity also carries policy implications, particularly as more Filipinos reach older ages.
Orteza said the country will need to strengthen healthcare and long-term care, social protection and pension systems, while creating communities that are more responsive to older persons and supporting families that care for them.
“Longer life expectancy means more Filipinos are expected to survive to older ages, increasing the need to prepare for an aging population. This will require strengthened healthcare and long-term care, social protection and pension systems, age-friendly communities and support for families and older persons," he said.
“Thus, the increasing longevity should be viewed not only as a demographic change, but also as an opportunity to ensure that Filipinos can live longer healthy, productive, and with dignified lives," he added.
The PSA stressed that the life expectancy figures should not be interpreted simply as a standalone measure of longevity. Rather, the figures are a byproduct of the population projections based on the 2020 Census of Population and Housing, providing an estimate of the mortality component used to determine how the country's population could change through 2035.
REGIONAL GAPS PERSIST
While life expectancy is projected to improve across all regions, substantial differences are expected to remain.
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The National Capital Region is projected to continue recording the highest life expectancy for both males and females. For males, NCR's life expectancy is projected to increase from 72.09 years in 2020 to 75.31 years by 2035. CAR and Cagayan Valley follow.
At the other end of the scale, SOCCSKSARGEN is projected to remain the region with the lowest male life expectancy, increasing from 61.79 years in 2020 to 66.68 years by 2035. BARMM and MIMAROPA are also among the regions with the lowest projections.
For females, NCR's life expectancy is projected to rise from 79.42 years in 2020 to 82.04 years by 2035. SOCCSKSARGEN is projected to remain at the bottom, although its female life expectancy is expected to increase from 68.51 years to 73 years during the same period.
By 2035, the difference between NCR and SOCCSKSARGEN is projected to be about nine years for both sexes.
The PSA cautioned, however, that its projection methodology does not establish specific causes for these regional disparities.
“These differences reflect variations in mortality conditions across regions. For the regional projections, the PSA used the national 2020 age-specific mortality pattern. So, meaning, nagba-base talaga tayo sa registered deaths in the area together with the regional infant mortality estimates to generate the regional life tables," Orteza said.
Orteza said socioeconomic conditions, living conditions and access to healthcare may contribute to differences among regions, but these factors cannot be identified as specific causes solely from the projection methodology.
“So, the main contributor in the disparity is the reported child mortality rates from the civil registration data," he added.
CHILD MORTALITY A MAJOR FACTOR
The PSA identified mortality among children aged 0 to 4 as an important factor in generating regional life tables.
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According to Orteza, higher reported deaths among children in this age group can contribute to lower life expectancy estimates for a region.
“Ibig sabihin marami pang nire-report na namamatay at a younger age group of 0 to 4, as compared to the other regions, the child mortality is represented by children ages 0 to 4," he said.
Orteza cited healthcare availability as one possible factor behind differences in child mortality, pointing to NCR's larger concentration of hospitals capable of caring for highly vulnerable young children.
He also pointed to maternal and newborn health services, including skilled birth attendance, antenatal and postnatal care, and emergency obstetric services, as important interventions associated with child survival.