The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday (September 16) and flagged further increases in borrowing costs in coming months, with new U.S. central bank chief Kevin Warsh joining a unanimous decision that effectively acknowledges the Trump administration's inability so far to control inflation.
While President Donald Trump had promised to lower prices on his watch, the combined impact of his global import tariffs, an energy shock following the start of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and capital spending from the artificial intelligence boom has kept price pressures intense enough that the Fed felt it needed to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range.
New policy projections showed 16 of 18 policymakers anticipate at least one more quarter-percentage-point hike by the end of this year, with only two of them seeing rates remaining stable from here. Warsh apparently again did not submit a rate projection.
It's the first policy shift under the new Fed chief, who took office in late May after being selected by Trump with an expectation that he would cut rates.
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said in a press conference following the Fed meeting that when it came to lifting rates, "inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the committee's 2% goal." He added, "I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the committee, so we removed a dose of accommodation."
Market bets on a rate hike at the Fed's next meeting in late October ticked higher to 56.5% from 54% prior to the hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
The Fed's new policy statement and economic projections show a central bank opening the door on tighter monetary policy through next year, with the policy rate rising to the 4.00%-4.25% range by the end of this year and ending 2027 at the same level.
The rate increase was announced less than two months ahead of midterm elections that will determine whether Trump's Republicans maintain control of Congress for the final two years of his presidency. The Republicans are facing an uphill battle with voters angry about gasoline prices that are about a third higher than a year ago and interest rates on home mortgages that have been rising steadily this year. The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is approaching 7%.
Policymakers' new quarterly economic projections marked up estimates of inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, to 3.7% versus the 3.6% projected at the Fed's June meeting. Inflation is not projected to return to the 2% target until 2029, a year later than previously expected.
Economic growth was marked up slightly from 2.2% to 2.3%, while the unemployment rate is seen ending the year at 4.1%, versus the 4.3% projected in June.
Warsh has pledged to lower inflation back to 2% "clearly and at sufficient speed" by raising rates as needed.
(Writer: Howard Schneider, Production and Editor: Kyoko Gasha)